The H-1B visa remains one of the most sought-after immigration programs for skilled professionals worldwide. Each year, U.S. employers submit hundreds of thousands of registrations for only 85,000 available cap slots, forcing U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to conduct a lottery. In 2025, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposed a major reform that could fundamentally change how H-1B registrations are selected—replacing the current random lottery with a wage-based weighted selection system that prioritizes higher-paying positions.

What Is the Proposed H-1B Weighted Lottery?

On September 24, 2025, DHS published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) titled “Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions.” If finalized, this rule would replace the existing random lottery system with a weighted process that gives more entries to higher-wage positions based on Department of Labor (DOL) wage levels.

This marks a major policy shift from a random lottery to a merit-based model emphasizing wage levels. DHS asserts the system will better align with congressional intent to attract the “best and brightest” talent.

How the Weighted Lottery Works

Under the proposed rule, the H-1B selection process would no longer be a simple random draw. Instead, each registration would be given a “weight” based on the wage level offered for the position.  

When employers submit their H-1B electronic registrations, they must indicate the job’s wage level, determined by the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) system. The higher the wage level, the more entries that registration receives in the lottery:

Wage Level (Based on DOL Classification)

Level IV – Highly experienced or senior roles: 4 entries

Level III – Experienced professionals: 3 entries

Level II – Mid-level or skilled positions: 2 entries

Level I – Entry-level positions: 1 entry

This means that a Level IV registration—for example, a senior software engineer or medical specialist—would appear four times in the lottery pool, while a Level I registration—such as an entry-level analyst or junior engineer—would appear only once.

All other steps of the registration and petition process remain the same, but the selection probability is now tied to wage level.

Safeguards to Prevent Manipulation

To ensure fairness, DHS and USCIS have proposed several compliance safeguards:

• For positions located in multiple cities or states, the lowest applicable wage level will be used.

• Employers must certify that the offered wage is bona fide and consistent with DOL data.

• If an employer provides a salary range, USCIS will apply the lowest point in that range when assigning lottery weight.

• Once selected, the filed petition must match the registration details (job title, SOC code, work location, and wage). Any inconsistencies could result in denial or revocation.

Impact on Employers and F-1 Students

Data from recent H-1B cap seasons show that the proposed weighted lottery would dramatically reshape selection outcomes based on the wage level assigned to each position. According to Department of Labor (DOL) data and USCIS registration trends, the vast majority of H-1B filings fall within lower wage tiers — meaning the proposed rule would shift the advantage toward a smaller group of high-wage, highly skilled roles.

• Level I (entry-level) positions currently make up about 30% of all H-1B registrations. Under the weighted system, these roles would face the sharpest decline in selection odds because they receive only one lottery entry. DHS estimates that their selection probability could fall to around 15% — nearly 50% lower than under the current random process.

• Level II (mid-level) positions account for roughly half of all registrations and would likely experience a modest decline in selection rates, with projected odds of about 31% — only a slight 3% increase from current levels.

• Level III (experienced professional) roles, representing approximately 10–12% of filings, could see their odds rise to around 46%, a 55% improvement compared to today’s system.

• Level IV (highly specialized or senior roles)—currently only 3–5% of all filings—would have the greatest advantage, with an estimated 61% probability of selection, roughly double (107% higher) than current averages.

In practical terms, the weighted lottery would favor high-skill, high-wage occupations—such as senior software engineers, data scientists, and healthcare specialists—while disadvantaging entry-level or lower-paid positions, including many recent U.S. graduates starting their careers. For F-1 students, this change could make the traditional path from OPT to H-1B sponsorship significantly more competitive.

Compliance and Legal Risks for Employers

The weighted lottery proposal is expected to increase scrutiny of employer wage practices. Companies may feel pressured to raise salaries to enhance their selection chances. However, inaccurate wage reporting or inflated offers could trigger investigations by the Department of Labor or USCIS, leading to fines, revocations, or H-1B program bans.

Startups and small businesses may face additional challenges competing with larger employers capable of offering higher wages. Over time, this could widen the gap between tech giants and emerging firms, affecting innovation and hiring flexibility.

Implementation Timeline and Legal Outlook

The proposed rule remains under review and open for public comment until October 24, 2025. DHS may revise the regulation based on stakeholder input before issuing a final rule. If adopted, the new system could take effect as early as the FY 2027 cap season (lottery held in March 2026).

It is worth noting that a similar wage-based selection rule introduced in 2020 was struck down in federal court and later rescinded. The current version may face similar legal challenges regarding DHS’s authority to prioritize wage levels without congressional approval.

Strategic Recommendations for Employers and Applicants

• For Employers

The proposed weighted lottery will make wages a key factor in H-1B success. Now is the time to review your hiring and compliance strategy:

• Start early. Review your company’s H-1B plans for the FY 2027 cap season now to avoid last-minute adjustments.

• Know your numbers. Benchmark each sponsored position against official Department of Labor (DOL) wage levels and make sure your salary data is accurate.

• Document everything. Keep clear records showing how each wage level was determined, including job descriptions and wage surveys.

• Play it straight. Avoid inflating wages or manipulating job titles to gain better lottery odds—doing so could trigger a DOL or USCIS audit.

• Think ahead. Consider whether certain key positions could be reclassified at higher wage levels or through promotions that naturally meet those standards.

• For F-1 Students and Early-Career Professionals

The new rule could make it harder for recent graduates and entry-level workers to be selected, but smart planning can make a difference:

• Aim higher. Earning an advanced degree or gaining specialized experience can qualify you for positions with higher wage levels and better lottery odds.

• Know your options. Instead of focusing solely on the H-1B lottery, some applicants may choose to pursue direct immigration pathways that lead to permanent residence. Options may include family-based or employment-based green card applications, the EB-5 immigrant investor program, or other visa categories such as O-1, P-1, L-1, E-2, E-3, or TN. For those eligible, obtaining work authorization as a dependent spouse can also be a practical alternative.

• Plan early. Don’t wait for the rule to become final—start preparing for next year’s H-1B registration and discuss long-term strategies with your employer or immigration attorney.

By preparing early and staying informed, both employers and applicants can navigate the transition to a wage-based H-1B lottery system more smoothly and protect their best opportunities for success.

Conclusion: Preparing for a Wage-Driven H-1B Future

The proposed H-1B weighted lottery represents one of the most significant reforms to U.S. employment-based immigration in recent years. By prioritizing higher-paid positions, DHS aims to attract top global talent, but the change could also disadvantage entry-level workers and smaller employers.  

At the Law Offices of Sabrina Li, P.C., we help employers and foreign professionals navigate H-1B and employment-based immigration challenges. Our experienced attorneys provide compliance reviews, wage strategy consultations, and visa planning tailored to your organization’s goals.